STARTUP VALUATION MODELS

Akylles
5 min readJan 3, 2023

Everything you need to know about how to value your company or startup.

There are several models that can be used to value a company. Some of the most common ones include:

  1. Comparable company analysis: This involves comparing the company being valued to similar companies in the same industry, and using the financial metrics of those companies to help determine the value of the company being valued.
  2. Discounted cash flow analysis: This involves estimating the future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to their present value using a discount rate.
  3. Dividend discount model: This involves valuing the company based on the present value of its future dividends.
  4. Net asset value: This involves valuing the company based on the value of its assets (such as property, plants, and equipment) minus its liabilities.
  5. Earnings multiple approach: This involves valuing the company based on a multiple of its earnings, such as its price-to-earnings ratio.
  6. Asset-based approach: This involves valuing the company based on the value of its tangible assets, such as real estate, machinery, and inventory.
  7. Market capitalization: This involves valuing the company based on the total value of its outstanding shares of stock.
  8. Liquidation value: This involves valuing the company based on the value that its assets would fetch if they were sold off and the company was dissolved.
  9. Intrinsic value: This is a value that is based on the perceived fundamental worth of a company, and it takes into account a variety of factors such as the company’s growth prospects, financial stability, and management.
  10. Sum-of-the-parts analysis: This involves breaking the company down into its various business units or divisions and valuing each unit separately, and then summing up the values to get a total value for the company as a whole.
  11. Book value: This is the value of a company’s assets as they are listed on the balance sheet. It is calculated by subtracting the company’s liabilities from its assets.
  12. Replacement value: This is the cost that would be incurred to replace a company’s assets with new ones.
  13. Real options valuation: This is a method of valuing the potential value of a company’s intangible assets, such as intellectual property or patents, by considering the options that they provide to the company.
  14. Monte Carlo simulation: This is a statistical method that involves using computer simulations to model the probability of different outcomes and their potential impact on a company’s value.
  15. Lattice model: This is a mathematical model that uses a grid of possible future outcomes to determine the value of a company’s financial instruments, such as stock options.

HOW TO APPLY FOR A STARTUP

There are several methods that can be used to value a startup, and the appropriate method will depend on the specific circumstances of the startup and the information that is available. Here are some examples of methods and models that can be used to value a startup:

Comparable Company Analysis

  1. Comparable company analysis: This involves comparing the startup to similar companies in the same industry that have already gone public or been acquired. For example, if the startup is a software company with a subscription-based business model, the valuation could be based on the valuations of other software companies with similar business models that have gone public or been acquired.

Startup valuation = (Comparable company valuation) x (Metric for comparison, such as revenue or profits) / (Metric for the startup)

For example, if the comparable company has a valuation of $100 million and generates $10 million in revenue, and the startup has revenue of $5 million, the valuation of the startup could be calculated as follows:

Startup valuation = ($100 million) x ($10 million / $5 million) = $200 million

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

  1. Discounted cash flow analysis: This involves estimating the future cash flows of the startup and discounting them back to their present value using a discount rate. For a startup, the estimates of future cash flows may be more speculative and the discount rate may be higher to reflect the higher level of uncertainty and risk.

Startup valuation = SUM[(Projected cash flow / (1 + discount rate)^(Period))]

For example, if the startup is expected to generate $1 million in cash flow in each of the next 5 years, and the discount rate is 10%, the valuation of the startup could be calculated as follows:

Startup valuation = ($1 million / (1 + 0.1)¹) + ($1 million / (1 + 0.1)²) + ($1 million / (1 + 0.1)³) + ($1 million / (1 + 0.1)⁴) + ($1 million / (1 + 0.1)⁵) = $4.06 million

Asset Based Approach

  1. Asset-based approach: This involves valuing the startup based on the value of its tangible assets, such as intellectual property or patents. For example, if the startup owns a patent for a new technology, the valuation could be based on the estimated value of that patent.

Startup valuation = SUM(Value of assets) — SUM(Value of liabilities)

For example, if the startup has assets worth $5 million and liabilities worth $2 million, the valuation of the startup could be calculated as follows:

Startup valuation = ($5 million) — ($2 million) = $3 million

EARNING MULTIPLE APPROACH

  1. Earnings multiple approach: This involves valuing the startup based on a multiple of its projected earnings. For example, if the startup is expected to generate $1 million in profits in the next year and the industry average price-to-earnings ratio is 15, the valuation of the startup could be $15 million ($1 million x 15).

Startup valuation = (Earnings) x (Multiple)

For example, if the startup is expected to generate $1 million in profits in the next year and the industry average price-to-earnings ratio is 15, the valuation of the startup could be calculated as follows:

Startup valuation = ($1 million) x (15) = $15 million

I apologize for the misunderstanding. Here are a few examples of earnings multiples for different types of startups:

  • A pre-revenue biotech startup with a promising experimental drug candidate in clinical trials might have an earnings multiple of 20–30.
  • A SaaS startup with a proven business model and a growing customer base might have an earnings multiple of 5–10.
  • A consumer goods startup with a strong brand and growing sales might have an earnings multiple of 2–4.

It is important to note that these are just examples and are not meant to be taken as definitive values. The appropriate earnings multiple for a startup will depend on a variety of factors such as the industry, the stage of the company, the quality of the company’s management and financials, and the level of risk and uncertainty associated with the company.

REAL OPTIONS VALUATION

  1. Real options valuation: This is a method of valuing the potential value of a startup’s intangible assets, such as intellectual property or patents, by considering the options that they provide to the company. For example, if the startup owns a patent for a new technology, the value of that patent could be based on the potential future revenue that it could generate for the company.

There are many ways to value a company but these are crucial for you to start. Follow on Twitter

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Akylles

Creator, Builder ⛩🀄️ Financial Services Lawyer & Entrepreneur. LLM in Financial Services Law and Corporate Law